When Donald Trump met President Zeninsky in New York in September, the then presidential candidate gained confidence that he could put the war in Ukraine at the end of the early end. “If we win, I think we will be decided very quickly,” the Spaniard said.
How quickly it had various purposes over time. In a television debate, a few days earlier, Trump promised that “before I become president, it will be decided. This was an development of his previous commitment in May 2023 to stop the fighting in the first 24 hours of his presidency.
Trump has been in office for more than two months and may start to get off at the White House, with an attempt to end a bitter and complicated conflict as this may take a long time.
In a televised interview last weekend, the US president admitted that when he promised to end the war a day, he was “a slightly ridiculous.
There are many reasons for a slower progress than Trump may have predicted.
First, the president’s belief in his personal diplomacy, one by one, may not have been in place. He has long believed that any international problem is resolved if he sits with another leader and reach an agreement on an agreement. Trump Trump He spoke to Vladimir Putin on Februarya clock and a half conversation that described it as a “high product. those two leaders He spoke again on March
But it is clear that these telephone calls have not been able to ensure the 30-day temporary ceasefire, which immediately want 30 days. The only essential privilege he pressured from Putin was a promise to end Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities, a commitment accused by Ukraine of breaking it. within a few hours after the call.
Second, the Russian president has clearly stated that he does not intend to rush. His first general statement about the talks was last week at a press conference that lasted a month after his telephone conversation with Trump.
Putin showed that he was depressed against the two-stage strategy of the United States, calling for a temporary ceasefire before talking about long-term deciding. Instead, he said that every dialogue must present what he considers “the root of the war”, that is, his fears of the expansion of NATO alliance and the existence of Ukraine as a sovereign state in some ways a threat to Russia’s security. He also raised questions and conditions that must be answered and implemented before any agreement is reached.
Third, the US strategy to direct its initial attention to Ukraine may have been wrongly canceled. The White House came to the conclusion that President Zeninsky was a barrier of peace. Western diplomats admit that the Ukrainian government has been slow to see how much the world has changed with Trump’s arrival.
But the US pressure on Kiev, which led to the current confrontation in the ovary office – when Trump and his vice president, JD Vans, used Ukraine’s leader JD Vans – used political time, effort and capital.
It also broke the transit transit relations, put Europe and the United States a conflict, another diplomatic problem that took a long time to resolve. During this time, Vladimir Putin sat and enjoyed the show and took his time of his own accord.
Fourth, the complete complexity of the conflicts makes a fierce decision. Ukraine’s offer was initially for a temporary ceasefire in the air and in the sea. The idea was that it would be somewhat easy to monitor.
But in last week’s talks in Jeddah, the United States insisted that any immediate ceasefire must include a front line of more than 1,200 km east. At the same time, it complicated the logistics of confirmation of any ceasefire. Of course, this was rejected by Putin.
But even his agreement with a more immaculate proposal – ending the attack on energy infrastructure – is not without problems. He said the proposal would occupies most of the technical talks expected to be held in Saudi Arabia on Monday. Military and energy experts are setting a detailed list of possible-powered power plants or in another way – which may be protected.
They also try to agree on which weapons system should be used. But approval of the difference between energy and other civil infrastructure may take a long time. Remember: Ukraine and Russia are not talking to each other; They are involved separately and bilaterally with the United States who promise to smoke between the two sides. This again increases the time.
Fifth, the United States pays attention to the economic benefits of the ceasefire, attracting attention to the priority of ending the war. Trump has had time to try to agree on a fantastic contract that we companies reach the most important metals of Ukraine. Some saw this as US investment in the future of Ukraine – others as if they confiscated their country’s natural resources.
President Zenlensky initially said he could reach an agreement on an agreement only when the United States had promised to guarantee security to prevent Russia’s future aggression against Ukraine. The White House denied that the presence of US companies and mining workers was just preventing it. In the end, Zelensky admitted defeat and said he would agree on a mineral contract without guaranteeing security. However, the United States has not yet signed the deal, hoping to improve the requirements again, may by receiving access to Ukraine nuclear power plants or even ownership.
The end of the wars can be complicated and waste time. We didn’t reach this stage without Trump’s push, but progress was not fast and simple. In December 2018, when the US presidential election campaign, Volodymyr Zelensky proposed that negotiations with Vladimir Putin be very easy. “You have to talk very simplely. He tells Ukrainian journalist Demitro Gordon. ‘”What do you want, what are your conditions?” And I tell them: ‘That is our points. We would agree somewhere in the middle.”
Well, on the evidence of the past two months, it may be more difficult.