French Presidential Decision Day

On Monday, the French navy will face a moment of creation or breaking, as a judge decides whether to ban him in the upcoming presidential election.

The right-wing leader, who is ahead of all his rivals in the 2027 competition, will be in court at 10:00 pm for his decision. RN RN RN tribunation of the party.

At the end of the trial in November, the state prosecutor’s office asked Lopez and 24 others accused of using the EU parliament to pay party salaries.

However, the prosecutor general’s surprise also said that Lipen’s punishment must be only 300,000 euros (250,000 pounds) will be a fine and prisoner. Inappropriate in nominating public posts for five years.

The important thing is that he said the unworthy must begin immediately – and not be suspended until the call that is expected to be filed by Marine Le Pen if punished.

The three judges are not committed to implementing the recommendations of the prosecutor general.

But if they do, it means that Lepin is 56 years old, in Stopping presidential election In which it will be numb as a potential winner.

“It is my political death that they are looking for,” he said in November.

Many French analysts – and not just those who support Lepen – have warned of difficult consequences for democracy if the judiciary is seen as interference in the election of the country’s leader.

“The judicial system has the fate of Marine Lipen… In order to be punished for any mistakes, it is normal. But it prevents the presidential nomination – that’s something else,” Gisbert wrote in the magazine.

“Isn’t it dangerous – if we say it’s not dangerous – the task of determining whether this or that candidate is able to run for the post?

“I’m not nervous in a personal way. But I can know why people think it may be me. Judges have the strength to live or die on the movement.

Various scenarios for the decision are under surveillance.

First, Lepen can be cleansed of accusations in the EU parliamentary money. This is widely seen as free.

Second, the judges could have blamed him, but the unworthy, not automatically. In this case, he immediately appeals and the unworthy will not be implemented until after the second trial (and I think one-third of the Supreme Court of Appeal).

He leaves it freely in 2027, although the disability penalty for misuse of public money. However, it is far from the clarity that his punishment will suffer a lot, given the series of scandals that were parties that have influenced all French parties over the years.

Third, judges can search for the prosecutor general and order an inappropriate order. In this case, he appeals and the other parts of the punishment (good and prison) will be stored. However, he cannot run in 2027.

Fourth, the court can give it a shorter period of automatic infidelity—say, one year – theoretically can run.

In 2027, Marine Le Pen’s race will be the biggest chance of success.

A survey in the right-wing JDD newspaper on Sunday gave between 34-37 percent of the first round of votes, long before each of its rivals.

In the last two presidencies, the foul of two terms system that allows the opponents of the left, the middle and the right to the right. meet behind a single candidate – Emmanuel Macron – to leave power.

But years of “Detoxicvicism” after his father Jean-Mary Le Pen in the party’s presidency, the anti-RN voted less than ever before, while the victories for the difficult rights in other countries, helped increase the taboo of a RN government.

if you are prevented from runninghis logical replacement will be Jordan Bardela, the 29-year-old leader of the party, to become prime minister.

However, the party’s local people admit that there has been little internal preparations for what is widely seen as a major political earthquake.

One of the results of Lopez’s statement that could not run in 2027 could further weaken the French minority government Francois Bayro. With 120 members of the National Assembly, RN has the power to vote with the left in Voting for distrust to reduce the government.

So far, Marine Le Pen has stopped her troops. He may feel less inclined to, if he feels that he has become a victim of an institutional crack.